Likelihood of Theresa May triggering Brexit this week ’50/50′

Britain’s road to Brexit is set to pass a significant milestone with Parliament expected to finally grant the Prime Minister the legal right to trigger formal EU exit negotiations.

David Davis, Brexit Secretary, has encouraged MPs to leave the Brexit bill unchanged, despite the House of Lords amending the legislation.

Theresa May’s EU (Notification of Withdrawal) bill is to return to the House of Commons on Monday with two amendments.

The first calls for protection of EU nationals living in the UK and the second demands that Parliament be given a "meaningful" vote on the final divorce deal struck between the Government and the EU.

But the final showdown is likely to be rather low-key event: in the House of Commons only a handful of Conservative MPs appear to be gearing up to oppose the Government or abstain in the vote on the bill, which means it should leave the lower chamber unamended.

Meanwhile in the House of Lords, Labour sources told Sky News there was an "80-90% chance" that the EU bill would clear the upper chamber on Monday, acknowledging that peers did not want to be portrayed as trying the thwart the result of the referendum.

However, a Labour source also told Sky News that the tone of Mr Davis would be crucial in shaping the views of crossbenchers and Conservative rebels.

"If he ignores the Lords’ amendments and concerns then the 10% comes into play," the source said.

But assuming that the Prime Minister is handed the power on Monday night to trigger Article 50, will she do it?

The Government has committed to triggering Article 50 by the end of March but will not give further detail on the timing.

One Government source – and Brexit supporter – told Sky News they believed there was a 50/50 chance the Prime Minister would trigger this week, and said the matters of the Dutch election and the SNP’s Spring Conference next weekend were weighing on ministers’ minds.

The Prime Minister would cause diplomatic upset by triggering Article 50 immediately before the Dutch election on Wednesday, given it could appear that the British were interfering in the election.

Geert Wilders, the leader of the far-right Party for Freedom, has hailed Britain’s vote to leave the European Union as a "patriotic spring" during his election campaign, and could try to turn Britain’s Article 50 moment to his advantage in the final hours of campaigning.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is also concerned about Nicola Sturgeon and her demand for a second referendum and is nervous about triggering Article 50 ahead of the SNP’s party conference on Saturday.

While, Scotland’s First Minister has ruled out demanding an independence referendum at the party conference, the Government may not want to fuel tensions over Brexit between Holyrood and Westminster ahead of the SNP’s big political event.

(c) Sky News 2017: Likelihood of Theresa May triggering Brexit this week ’50/50′