What does Theresa May’s victory mean for her Brexit deal?
Written by News on 13/12/2018
The result of this secret ballot may well sway the course of history. By backing Theresa May her MPs are probably defining Brexit.
The prime minister has by no means achieved clear waters to a Brexit deal – but had she lost this vote, it was likely the Conservative Party would have taken a very different course that could have either drastically reshaped the withdrawal deal, or left us with no deal.
Instead, this failed coup by the Brexit wing of the party has weakened their position. With the prospect of a leadership challenge deferred for another year, Mrs May has more freedom.
She could, for example, threaten her rebels that without their backing she would have to lean towards a softer Brexit- something that could gain support from opposition MPs.
She could also threaten them with a “people’s vote”.
Ultimately, this result means she’s more likely to get her deal through parliament. But she’s still got a mountain to climb. Some MPs have already insisted that this doesn’t mean they will fall into line.
Andrea Jenkyns, Tory MP for Morley Outwood, told Sky News: “I’m a democrat so I’ll respect the decision but if Theresa May brings the same deal back to parliament I will still vote it down.
“She needs to go back to the drawing board. She’s never ever put our country first in these negotiations.”
The no confidence vote itself has once again exposed the division within the Conservative Party over the EU, but a leadership contest would have amplified it.
It’s argued a stronger leader might have emerged, but it is hard to see how that person could have avoided revoking or trying to extend Article 50 in order to have time to pull together a new cabinet, a new negotiating team and new strategy towards dealing with the EU.
The prime minister has been given a lifeline by prominent Brexit supporters such as Michael Gove. The man she once told to go away and learn about loyalty is now the most significant advocate of her withdrawal deal.
Earlier outside parliament, Mr Gove was confronted by a Remain campaigner dressed as Father Christmas who told him: “You’re not getting any presents this year.”
Wrong – he’s bound to get one from the prime minister.
But his mission, along with the rest of the government, is to convince Conservative MPs, and the crucial 10 DUP members of parliament, that the withdrawal agreement is the best and only way forward.
To do this Mrs May now needs some Christmas cheer from the European Union.
On Thursday, she heads to Brussels for the European Council summit and she needs concessions on the controversial backstop.
Even this might not be enough. Many of her MPs are demanding that the divorce bill is linked to EU cooperation on a future free trade arrangement.
The prime minister has promised parliament will get a vote before 21 January 2019. But she could still lose and Labour might still challenge the government with a vote of no confidence to try to force a general election.
With this in mind, Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd told Sky News: “I hope my colleagues will take a careful look at who’s leading us, what the choices are and what the alternative is if they don’t support it.
“I mean, quite frankly, it would be ironic if it was the Brexiteers that stopped us leaving the European Union.”
Many feel the prime minister’s festive mission is still hanging by a thread.
Remain-supporting Tory MP Anna Soubry said: “She needs to change course. She needs to bring the vote back before we rise for Christmas, and when it fails as it will fail, she needs to do the only thing she can do to get out of this unholy mess – and that’s to take it back to the British people and have a people’s vote.”
The 650 MPs will still decide the outcome. Nothing from the last 24 hours has transformed the deal that would have been rejected this week if MPs had been allowed to vote.
While Mrs May has once again shown that she’s a survivor, resilience might not be enough to achieve a deal by the deadline of 29 March.
(c) Sky News 2018: What does Theresa May’s victory mean for her Brexit deal?
