Should Theresa May trigger or beware the Ides of March?

It’s not happening today.

Theresa May will soon have the full legal authority to trigger Article 50, but she is not in an indecent haste to use that authority.

Number 10 keeps its cards close to its chest.

Westminster watchers had seen the Three Brexiteers rolled out on to the Sunday political shows, heard the Irish PM speculate on a trigger this week, and decided that today was the day.

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It was never the plan.

David Davis has been saying to anyone who wants to listen that the most important thing is not to interrupt the EU parade in Rome, next Saturday, celebrating the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome.

The Dutch election also created some difficulty for timing.

In any event, it is difficult to see the upside to triggering early, though some Cabinet ministers wanted it.

Going early merely shortens an already tight timetable to seal an exit deal and a new trade deal too.

In the meantime, the PM will have to deal with the result of a vote at Holyrood on Section 30 of the Scotland Act seeking a new independence referendum.

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This is a conscious effort from Nicola Sturgeon to entwine the Brexit process with Scottish independence and seek to turn the 45% into 50%+ by offering an opt out from what she calls "Tory Hard Brexit".

So, the week after next, within days of the Article 50 trigger, Theresa May will also have to decide on blocking a Scottish independence referendum or at the very least finding an elegant method to delay it.

Beware the Ides of March.

But, there are consequences if Article 50 is not triggered until the last week of March.

The European Union is now highly unlikely to be able to hold its EU27 response summit sketching out the negotiating mandate for the European Commission’s Michel Barnier until late April or even early May.

This is right in the middle of the French Presidential elections, which could in fact push the summit back to mid May.

Indeed, what is the point of having President Hollande decide the French position among the EU27?

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And though the moment of history is undoubted, it is also a moment of lucidity too.

Mrs May will seek a quick deal on reciprocal rights for EU citizens, but the carve up of assets and the bill for liabilities will be painful processes.

And the result of the Article 50 process is most commonly understood as handing over control of the negotiating process to Brussels.

Having come this far, an extra fortnight’s wait represents minimal additional disruption to the process.

Finally, this will now start in earnest later this month.

(c) Sky News 2017: Should Theresa May trigger or beware the Ides of March?