Golden State Warriors blueprint to beating Houston Rockets in Western Conference semifinals
Written by News on 28/04/2019
The Golden State Warriors are set to face a stiff challenge from the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference semifinals. Sky Sports NBA analyst Mark Deeks outlines what the Warriors must do to remain on track for a three-peat.
With their Game 6 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night, the Golden State Warriors advanced to the second round of the 2019 NBA Playoffs. The two-time defending champions did not find it easy against a Clippers team that made for far better competition than is normally the case for a number eight seed, yet once again, just as they always do, the Warriors prevailed.
They thus move on to the second round, where a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals awaits them. The Warriors will take on the Houston Rockets in round two, a team that pushed them to seven games last season and that would have won the series were it not for an inexplicable team-wide shooting slump (shooting a mere 7-44 from three-point range in game seven, including 27 misses in a row at one point). Ever since that time, the Rockets have been baying for a chance at revenge.
This is not the same Houston Rockets team that began the season. Seven of the players are different; Marquese Chriss, Brandon Knight, Zhou Qi, James Ennis, Carmelo Anthony and Michael Carter-Williams are out, while Kenneth Faried, Austin Rivers, Danuel House, Trevon Duval, Michael Frazier, Chris Chiozza and Iman Shumpert are in. More importantly, though, the results on the court are very different. The team that started 1-5, 4-7 and 11-14, and which did not get back to .500 until mid-December, won 20 of their 25 games after the All-Star break, as well as 42 of their last 63 overall. They have improved throughout the season, are back to the level that saw them secure top seeding last season ahead of these Warriors, and are much better than a number four seed should rightly ever be.
This rematch, then, should be a doozy.
For the Warriors, much of their success in this upcoming series will depend on discipline and decision-making. While they are the two-time defending champions looking for their fifth consecutive NBA Finals appearance, they are not the juggernaut that they were at the start of this run. They certainly have gotten no worse talent wise, only better, a talent level which has allowed them to again take the top spot out West despite not being at their best for anything longer than short stretches. Yet the chemistry has not been there this season, and as much as any opponent can challenge them, the Warriors’ biggest challenge may be themselves.
Golden State need to be disciplined with their foul totals. They need to be disciplined in avoiding getting technical fouls on top of that. They need to not lapse into an excess of isolation basketball just because Houston are doing it. The coaching staff need to be disciplined not to run out entire bench units at a time that invariably play at big disadvantages to more staggered opponents. They need to be disciplined enough to utilise their weakside threats, to do all the required chasing on perimeter defence, and to not give away the important home court advantage.
There are also some match-up disadvantages at key defensive positions that will need delicate rotation balances and strategic decisions to counteract. While Klay Thompson is an excellent one-to-one defender on the wing, and Steph Curry is a much-underrated one by this point in his career, the Warriors’ defence at the guard positions and on the wing tapers off significantly behind them. Shaun Livingston no longer has the ability to defend the position he was brought up in, Andre Iguodala is also slowing down in his mid-30s, and Quinn Cook is simply a sub-par defender.
Just as the Warriors must always strive to keep one of Curry and Kevin Durant on the floor at all times, so too will the Rockets do so with James Harden and Chris Paul, and the Warriors may not always have a defender for that. The problem could be exacerbated by fitness concerns over Curry and Thompson, who are both listed as questionable for Game 1 due to ankle injuries.
A similar story resides in the front court, where Clint Capela will not be the easiest player to check. Houston’s offence being so reliant on the Harden-Capela pick-and-roll, as well as Capela’s finishes from dump-off passes to the dunk position and lobs over the top, do not get much easier to defend simply by knowing they are coming. With DeMarcus Cousins and Damian Jones out, and sophomore Jordan Bell having underwhelmed all year, the Warriors struggled significantly for contributions from their front-court depth in the first round, something exploited by the terrific duo of Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell just as it will again be by Harden and Capela.
The addition of Andrew Bogut as a defensive option on the interior would in theory remedy that only if he were not so vulnerable to spread offences. With their league-high three-point rate (51.8 per cent of all their field goals are three-pointers, nearly 10 per cent ahead of second-placed Dallas), Houston have the spreadiest offence of all. Bogut’s inability to defend the perimeter gets exposed by a space-centric team such as Houston, and his strengths are this negated – Capela will not be stretching Bogut out with any perimeter shooting of his own, but a high pick-and-roll between he and Harden, with shooters all around to kick to once Harden gets a step, makes for far too much area for him to cover.
Those match-up disadvantages go both ways, however. Just as the Warriors will find it difficult to check the Rockets’ guards, so too will the Rockets struggle to find individual match-ups for Curry.
The Clippers tried to use their defensive backcourt duo of Patrick Beverley and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to pressure Curry even before he got the ball, yet the Rockets have not had a player to do that since they traded Beverley for Paul. Paul is still a good player, but his decline has begun, and he does not have a series worth of 35 minutes per game of high defensive pressure to impart onto one so prolific as Curry any longer. Furthermore, while the take that the losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute have been so oft-repeated as to become a trope, there is truth to it still; much as the mid-season additions of House, Rivers, Faried and Shumpert added a small degree of help, as did the decent rookie contributions of forward Gary Clark and the much-improved second half of Eric Gordon, the Rockets remain a very shallow team. Shallower even than the Warriors.
In a sense, Houston’s unique isolation-dominant style of play may end up working in Golden State’s favour. As demoralising as their style can be, when Harden dribbles out a shot clock then hits a step-back three off zero passes you knew would be coming but could not prevent anyway, it is not a style that is legs-intensive. On the league’s second-oldest team making its fourth consecutive long postseason run, hindered by little depth, key injuries and rolled ankles in the last game for both of their star guards, this may come as something of a relief.
Nonetheless, let it also not be overlooked that the Rockets have been built to exploit these Warriors. The road to the NBA title has led through Golden State for long enough now for teams to be built directly to counter them (or at least with half a mind to that specific match-up whenever targeting players). Knowing that the Warriors are susceptible to penetration, they acquired Chris Paul; knowing that scoring machine Durant would always be a constant challenge, they signed P.J. Tucker, the best foreseeable and attainable match-up for him.
Durant needs to be aggressive in that likely match-up regardless. As he showed with his 50-point performance to close out the Clippers, his ability to score irrespective of what is thrown at him rivals Harden’s ability to do the same. Indeed, all this talk of defensive strategy ignores the fact that this series features three players who are impossible to stop. Golden State have two of them. That in itself is a perennial advantage.
Tactical decisions and match-ups still matter, however. Each series and match-up needs defending differently. Given the need to play big men better able to defend the perimeter, Kevon Looney should see extended usage in this series, as ought Draymond Green at centre in the so-called Death Line-up. The Warriors have injuries to cover for in a way that the Rockets do not, and the seedings do not reflect the quality of team that Houston became over the course of the season. It can be said that the Warriors still have the ability to flick the switch and dominate opponents, but this is something that happens less and less, and is far from a sure thing.
When the Warriors play at their best, their basketball is a thing of beauty. Conversely, regardless of whether they are playing well or not, the Rockets are always stylistically jarring. The Warriors have the star-studded roster; the Rockets have the defending (and possibly repeating) Most Valuable Player in the league. The Warriors have the experience; the Rockets may have more of the hunger that comes from chasing that elusive first one. Inasmuch as both teams epitomise differing aspects of the new NBA orthodoxies, their match-up is inevitable and captivating.
Both teams need to play better than they did in the first round. But series like these are what they play for.
(c) Sky News 2019: Golden State Warriors blueprint to beating Houston Rockets in Western Conference semifinals
