Coronavirus outbreak could last until next spring and hospitalise 7.9 million, says leaked Public Health England document
Written by News on 17/03/2020
The coronavirus epidemic could see up to 7.9 million people requiring hospital treatment in the next 12 months, according to a Public Health England briefing seen by Sky News.
The document also confirms that healthcare workers who have symptoms of COVID-19 would not necessarily all be tested.
“Laboratory capacity is growing steadily but remains under significant demand pressures,” it said.
Dr Susan Hopkins, deputy director of PHE’s national infection service, said: “PHE used reasonable worse-case scenario figures, to restate the importance for people with symptoms to stay at home, including health care workers in order to reduce the spread of the virus.”
The document says the virus could circulate until next spring.
Chief medical officer Chris Witty has previously said up to 80% of the population could catch the virus in a worst-case scenario.
The PHE briefing adds that “up to 15% [7.9 million people] may require hospitalisation”.
While the figures are not completely unexpected they bring into stark focus the challenge the NHS will face in the coming months.
On Sunday, the Health Secretary Matt Hancock called on businesses to step up production of vital medical equipment including ventilators.
Writing on Twitter, Conservative Andrew Bowie said MPs had had been “inundated with offers” and advised businesses to contact a government helpline.
In a conference call with British manufacturers on Monday morning, Boris Johnson will set out what they can do to help in the fight against coronavirus.
He will also confirm that the government will purchase any ventilators that are produced by companies in the coming weeks.
However, intensive care doctors say that any new equipment will need to be appropriate for those using it and signed off by the healthcare regulator.
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Former dean of The Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine Dr Carl Waldmann said if extra ventilators are brought in, then there will need to be “extra staff, extra training and extra gear for protection”.
Another doctor, who did not want to be named, said the current intensive care system was “adequate for day-to-day but not really equipped for the expected epidemic”.
Opposition parties will also meet with the government on Monday to be briefed about the ongoing outbreak.
Responding to the leaked PHE briefing on Sunday night, Labour’s shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth said the government needed to “produce a fully costed, comprehensive options plan now”.
Liberal Democrat acting leader Ed Davey said: “Whilst we have full confidence in the Chief Medical Officer and his team, Boris Johnson is failing to explain convincingly his strategic approach to dealing with coronavirus.”
A Downing Street spokesperson said: “Preparing for the spread of the coronavirus outbreak is a national priority and we’re calling on the manufacturing industry and all those with relevant expertise who might be able to help to come together to help the country tackle this national crisis.”
In other developments:
- Globally more than 169,000 are infected and over 6,500 have died
- As of 9am on Monday, 1,543 people had tested positive for coronavirus in the UK
- Figures from Sunday show 35 people in the UK have died since being diagnosed
- US President Donald Trump tests negative for the coronavirus
- Guatemala logs its first fatality from COVID-19
- Italy records 368 more deaths from the coronavirus outbreak on Sunday, its biggest one day rise
- France is preparing an order that would put the country under partial lockdown to combat the epidemic
- Britain will isolate older people “within weeks” and force into quarantine anyone diagnosed with coronavirus
- Jordan confirms 12 new cases of the coronavirus
- More major retailers shut stores in the US including Nike, Under Armour, and Lululemon Athletica
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(c) Sky News 2020: Coronavirus outbreak could last until next spring and hospitalise 7.9 million, says leaked Public Health England document
