Coronavirus: New documents reveal what the next step for social bubbles could be
Written by News on 14/06/2020
When can two households mix and when can we bubble with a pair of grandparents?
They’re two of the big questions many are asking after the government introduced “support bubbles” for those living alone.
There might be a clue in the latest documents published by SAGE, the government’s scientific advisory group.
Research by behavioural scientists for SAGE suggests a “phased” introduction of bubbles.
We are currently in Phase 1, where someone living on their own can now bubble with another household.
The science describes this option as 1+n, and modelling data shows this would not raise the R rate above one. Put simply, this kind of bubble won’t increase the rate the virus is spreading too much.
The next stage is Phase 2, known as 2+n, where a household of two can join with another household. For example, two grandparents could bubble with their grandchildren.
The SAGE advice states this could happen “if no epidemiological adverse effects” occur during Phase 1.
Basically, if R can be kept below one, we could with “caution and proper preparation” move to the next phase.
It’s the same advice for moving onto Phase 3, when a household bubbling with one person can add a larger household into their bubble.
Several factors determine how much of an impact bubbling has on the epidemic. They include, the size and nature of the bubbles, how many households create bubbles and how well people in bubbles stick to the rules.
The rules are important, because even small breaches of bubbles would create a “significant risk of increasing transmission”.
A gradual phasing means the measure could be reversed if a second wave happens.
The SAGE papers admit decisions about whether to form bubbles could “create friction and fragmentation” among friends and families.
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As an alternative, they suggest allowing small groups of people to meet outside, providing social distancing happens.
While the SAGE documents provide a framework for expanding the bubble groups, they do not suggest a timescale.
That will be a decision for the politicians.
(c) Sky News 2020: Coronavirus: New documents reveal what the next step for social bubbles could be
