General election: Why Sheffield Hallam is a different kind of battleground
Written by News on 17/11/2019
A trend is emerging across the Labour marginals we’ve been visiting this week across Derbyshire, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.
Leave voters are holding their noses and thinking of voting for the Tories or the Brexit Party.
Sheffield steelworker Steve Noble says the NHS and education are the issues dearest to his heart at normal elections.
But this time he says it is secondary to Brexit.
His boss, Lee Stones, says he voted Remain but now thinks the best thing to do is back the deal available and bring “some certainty back to my business”.
Sheffield Hallam went the way of the country as a whole in 2016, with a narrow vote to leave.
And in a constituency once held by Nick Clegg, the Lib Dems are a powerful force.
This is a real three-way fight largely because of one issue.
Why Sheffield Hallam matters
Sheffield Hallam is a different kind of contest to those we have visited so far. It is a Labour/Lib Dem battleground in student territory.
A marginal seat since 2015, it is most famous for the defeat of the former Lib Dem leader Sir Nick Clegg in 2017.
The Labour MP who replaced him, Jared O’Mara, has not been short of controversy. He is standing down at this election after announcing he is receiving mental health treatment.
This was one of only eight seats the Lib Dems won at the 2015 general election and many observers expect it to be one of the party’s easiest gains in 2019.
Voter profile
More graduates live in Sheffield Hallam than in any other Yorkshire and Humber constituency. Around 43% of adults there are graduates – making it the 29th most educated constituency in the UK.
Despite the large number of students who live there, Sheffield Hallam is average in terms of the number of adults under the age of 45 – 44.7% – making it the 325th youngest constituency out of 650 in the UK.
Sheffield Hallam is at 504 on the Sky Deprivation Index and also among the 150 least deprived seats in the UK.
However, it is among the top 25 constituencies (23rd) most affected by the financial crisis, with average earnings down 17.5% points on 2010. Approximately 70,000 people are eligible to vote here.
Sky News’s election analysts Professor Michael Thrasher and Professor Will Jennings have selected six demographic measures to profile constituencies at this election. These measures have been chosen for their strong relationship with party support and give a good indication of the potential appeal of parties in each seat.
Terms explained
Brexit: This shows the % which voted Leave.
Age: Labour and the Lib Dems vote share tends to be higher in younger areas, with the Conservatives making gains in seats where the electorate is older.
Education: Since 2005, the Conservatives have done worse in graduate areas, and Labour has made progress.
Ethnic minorities: Labour tends to do better in seats with a higher proportion of ethnic minority communities. The Conservatives tend to do worse.
Earnings: This shows the percentage change in average earnings between 2010 and 2018, adjusted for inflation. In 2017, the Conservative vote showed slight increases in constituencies where earnings had increased. Labour tended to improve where earnings have declined.
Deprivation: Our Sky Deprivation index ranks the social and economic health of particular areas, using data on employment, qualifications, poor health and occupancy. The higher the number the more deprived the constituency, with Labour and the SNP outperforming these areas. The Conservative and the Lib Dems vote share is higher in places that are less deprived.
(c) Sky News 2019: General election: Why Sheffield Hallam is a different kind of battleground
