Tories on course to become biggest party in West Midlands – Sky Data

The Conservatives appear to be on course to become the largest party in the West Midlands, as Theresa May marches deeper into traditionally Labour territory.

Analysis by Sky Data suggests Labour could lose up to 10 seats in constituencies from Birmingham to Wolverhampton on the back of a surge in support for Mrs May’s Conservatives.

In 2015, Labour took 21 out of 28 seats in the West Midlands’ metropolitan area, with the Tories winning just seven.

The analysis suggests the Conservatives are up 10 points on their 2015 general election result in the area, with Labour and UKIP down six points each.

Mrs May is gaining ground in the Brexit-backing West Midlands among those who voted Leave in the EU referendum – up 11 points on 2015 among this group – while losing no ground among Remainers.

The findings come on the heels of a shock poll in Wales, which found the Tories on course to win the majority of Welsh parliamentary seats for the first time in a century.

The Tories are increasingly confident that they are on the precipice of a breakthrough not only in Wales but in the West Midlands too.

The first test will come on Friday when 2.8 million voters in the West Midlands decide who should be their first metropolitan mayor.

Mrs May has visited the region three times in recent weeks and knocked doors with the Tory candidate Andy Street, with one local poll putting the Conservative and his Labour rival Sion Simon, a Labour MEP for the region, neck and neck.

A breakthrough in Birmingham would be a vindication of Ms May’s brand of "working people" conservatism in Labour’s heartlands.

The party has struggled to get more than a toehold in Birmingham for a long time and only one city constituency – Sutton Coldfield – has had a Conservative MP since 1997.

Mrs May’s co-chief of staff Nick Timothy grew up in a working-class neighbourhood in Birmingham and is credited with helping the Prime Minister craft her message to appeal to parts of the country David Cameron struggled to reach.

Seats in the Tories’ sights include Birmingham Edgbaston, where MP Gisela Stuart is standing down at the next election; Birmingham Northfield; Coventry South and Walsall North.

The Tories also hope to take back Wolverhampton South West, which they lost by just 801 voters in the 2015 election, particularly since the Labour MP Rob Marris has decided not to defend the seat.

Mr Street, who went into this mayoral race as the underdog, said a win for him would represent an "enormous breakthrough" for the party.

Labour controls six of the seven councils in the area, while the Tories control just one.

"Everyone is saying that it is all to play for, that it is close," Mr Street told the Sunday Telegraph.

"But I actually think it is winnable. That in itself is very, very heartening in an area that the Labour party has probably taken for granted."

(c) Sky News 2017: Tories on course to become biggest party in West Midlands – Sky Data