Are the Denver Nuggets legitimate contenders in the Western Conference?

The Denver Nuggets are 21-11 and are challenging the Golden State Warriors at the top of the Western Conference. Is their success over the opening third of the season sustainable? Lee Harvey examines their credentials.

Coping with injuries

Despite the Nuggets equalling the most successful 30-game start to a season (21-9) in their history, we are yet to see them at full strength. Injuries have nagged away at Denver all season but their roster depth has allowed them to cope in admirable fashion.

Will Barton had an excellent pre-season and looked poised for a breakout year. He played just two games before going down with a groin injury and is a long-term absentee.

Starting shooting guard Gary Harris hasn’t played since December 3 having suffered a hip injury.

All-Star forward Paul Millsap has missed the last seven games after breaking his big toe.

These setbacks are more than enough to derail a campaign yet the Nuggets have stood firm, maintaining their place in the upper echelons of the West.

Emergence of young stars

Denver’s injury problems have provided an opportunity for reserve guard Monte Morris.

The 23-year-old has scored in double figures in nine consecutive games in December, including a 20-point, 10-assist performance in a victory over the Memphis Grizzlies.

Morris also boasts the NBA’s second-best assist-to-turnover ratio (5.7) and along with efficient shooting (48.4 field goal percentage, 45.8 three-point percentage). He has emerged as one of the best back-up point guards in the league.

Morris isn’t the only Nugget who has stepped up. Reserve shooting guard Mailk Beasley has provided useful scoring off the bench. Rookie Torrey Craig has earned 20 minutes per game thanks to the emphasis he has placed on playing tough defense.

Juancho Hernangomez has stepped up in Millsap’s absence, posting career-best numbers in 10 December games (13.3 points per game, 6.5 rebounds per game) while reserve center Miles Plumlee moved into Millsap’s starting power forward spot and helped shore up the Nuggets’ interior.

Denver’s response to their injury issues have shown Nuggets coach Mike Malone he has a bench full of young serviceable NBA role players.

And there’s more to come. Rookie forward Michael Porter Jr, selected 14th in the 2018 Draft, is due to return from a back injury later in the season, as will free agent signing Isaiah Thomas, the diminutive point guard who averaged 28.9 points per game two years ago as a member of the Boston Celtics.

Stats say ‘sustainable’

Regardless of the personnel deployed on the floor, the numbers show the Nuggets have become one of the NBA’s most balanced teams.

The Nuggets are one of three teams (Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors are the others) to rank in the Top 10 for both offensive rating (110.8 points scored per 100 possessions – ninth) and defensive rating (105.4 points allowed per 100 possessions – seventh).

That consistent quality at both ends of the court suggests the Nuggets’ success is sustainable, with or without their best players.

It’s the defensive leap the Nuggets have made that is most impressive, especially given the absence of Harris and Millsap, their two best defenders.

Rookie small forward Craig noted the importance of Denver’s ‘D’, telling Associated Press: “[In] a lot of games we won this year, we didn’t play well offensively and our defense carried us through. Even though we don’t shoot well, even if we turn the ball over, even if we don’t find our flow offensively, if we continue to get stops, we can put ourselves in a good position to win.”

Jokic in MVP conversation

Having roster depth is nice, but having a legitimate superstar is nicer. Nikola Jokic, the 7ft Serbian center with point guard passing skills, is developing into one of the league’s elite players, averaging 17.7 points, 9.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game through 32 games.

To put those numbers into context, only four players in have 17 PPG/9.5 RPG/7.5 APG seasons to their name. They are Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson and Russell Westbrook. Not bad company to be mentioned in!

The Nuggets entrusted the future of the franchise to Jokic, rewarding him with a five-year, $147m contract on July 1, 2018. He has delivered thus far, and demonstrated the skill and intelligence to tailor his performances to the needs of the team.

In the four games that followed Millsap’s injury, Jokic averaged 25.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.3 steals, shooting 56.1 per cent from the field and 88.9 per cent from the foul line in the process. If there’s one criticism of Jokic, it’s that those numbers suggest the Nuggets’ unselfish superstar should perhaps shoot more.

If Denver maintain their current win rate – as their roster depth, player development, offensive/defensive output and Jokic’s stellar play suggest they will – to end the season with 55+ wins, a top-four playoff seeding would be achieved, confirming their potential as a legitimate postseason threat.

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