Coronavirus: UK’s R number edges down but remains above 1
Written by News on 23/10/2020
The UK’s coronavirus reproduction (R) number has fallen slightly to 1.2-1.4, according to latest figures.
Last week’s estimate from government science advisers SAGE was 1.3-1.5.
A figure of 1.2-1.4 means 10 people will on average pass the virus to 12-14 others.
If the number is below 1, the virus will eventually peter out.
The number of new infections is still growing by between 3% and 6% per day, adds SAGE, but that’s slightly lower than last week’s 4-7% range.
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England’s R number is the same as the UK’s, and the highest range is in the South West – at 1.3-1.6 – and a 5-9% daily growth rate.
Despite the growth there, total cases are still far lower than hotspots in northern England.
The R number represents transmission over the past few weeks rather than a live snapshot due to the delay between someone being infected, having symptoms and needing care.
Scotland’s latest range is 1.2-1.5; Wales’ is 1.0-1.4; and Northern Ireland’s 1.4-1.8.
SAGE says true R numbers are likely to lie within the estimated ranges and there is “always uncertainty around its exact value”.
It’s put together from sources such as testing data, hospital admissions data, and household infection surveys – such as the one by the Office for National Statistics.
This week’s ONS survey showed another significant rise in the estimated number of people with COVID-19.
Daily cases in England (between 10 and 16 October) are believed to have been about 35,200 – up from 27,900 the week before.
Around 1 in 130 people – or 433,300 – were believed to be infected in total – up from 1 in 160 in the last survey.
Northern England had the highest infection rates, with 1 in 59 estimated to have had the virus in the North West.
The ONS survey tests tens of thousands of people each week – with or without symptoms – and is separate from the figures released each day by UK health authorities.
Warrington in Cheshire is set to be the latest area of northern England heading for the toughest Tier 3 rules.
Its council leaders say a deal is done, but it’s not certain yet when the new restrictions will start.
Meanwhile, Sky News understands that a decision on whether Nottingham will go into Tier 3 will be made this evening
(c) Sky News 2020: Coronavirus: UK’s R number edges down but remains above 1
